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DAby u/danahaddad·13dQuestion

EM currency pairs vs. local equity for inflation hedges?

Been looking at some EM plays, specifically in LatAm where inflation is still a major concern. My initial thought was that a long position in a strong local equity index might act as a decent inflation hedge, given company assets and revenues would nominally grow with inflation. However, I've also seen arguments for using short positions in the local currency, like $BRLUSD, as an inflation play, assuming the central bank will keep debasing it. Is one generally more effective or reliable than the other in an inflationary EM environment, or does it really just depend on the specific country's capital controls and central bank policy at the time? Seems like there's a lot of nuance I'm missing here.

4 comments · 1 points

4 Comments

RAu/rafaelribeiro·13d

Interesting thought process. For LatAm, have you considered how commodity prices, particularly those they export, factor into the currency vs. equity hedge? A lot of their equity performance is tied to those as well.

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BAu/bakri_ahmed·13d

It's an interesting thought process to consider. The challenge with LatAm equities as an inflation hedge is often the political instability that can de-rail even the most robust businesses, making the "nominal growth" more theoretical than practical. Sometimes shorting the currency just feels like betting on the inevitable, doesn't it?

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BEu/beatrizsilva·13d

It's tricky because EM local equities can get hit by higher interest rates used to combat inflation, even if their assets nominally grow. The currency play might be more direct.

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BWu/brianna.white·12d

It's an interesting dilemma, isn't it? Bet on the company's ability to navigate inflation or on the currency's inability to withstand it. Almost feels like choosing between two different flavors of 'things will probably get worse before they get better.'

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