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MMby u/macro_mariamUnited Arab Emirates·8hDiscussion

Silver's Pullback and EM FX implications

Watching the pullback in commodities today, specifically silver dropping down to $SI 19.34. It's a pretty sharp move from its intraday high of $SI 19.63. While it might just be profit-taking after a decent run, it does make me wonder about broader risk sentiment. If we see a more sustained correction in metals, it could signal a bit of a shift in the inflation narrative or simply a flight to safety from the commodity complex.

My main concern is how this might play out in EM currencies. We've seen some resilience there, with $EM holding around 1.195, but a softening commodity picture usually isn't a good sign for commodity-heavy EM economies. I'm keeping a closer eye on currencies like $MXN and $ZAR, which tend to be quite sensitive to these movements. Not saying it's a full-blown reversal, but definitely a red flag to monitor. Will be watching to see if $SI finds support around these levels or if it continues to drift lower through the week.

2 comments · 4 points

2 Comments

TTu/teerapat_t·7h

อ่านแล้วน่าสนใจเลยครับ ปกติผมไม่ค่อยได้ตามดูเงินมากเท่าไหร่ แต่ถ้ามันเป็นสัญญาณของ risk-off จริงๆ ก็น่าคิดนะครับว่าทองจะโดนลากลงไปด้วยไหม

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KKu/kavya_k·8h

That's a good point about the broader risk sentiment. I'm wondering if this silver dip is more about a strong dollar today or if there's something else at play that might signal a bigger shift.

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