Lagging Indicators and the Illusion of Control
Been thinking a lot lately about how much emphasis we still place on economic indicators that are, by their very nature, backward-looking. We dissect CPI, NFP, and GDP numbers with such intensity, yet by the time they hit the wires, aren't the smart money and algorithms already well-positioned? It feels like we're constantly driving by looking in the rearview mirror, making decisions based on where we've been, not where we're going.
Take the recent action; $CL moving up to 70.57 and $EURJPY hitting 185.002 today – these moves are happening in real-time, often ahead of any official data release that would 'justify' them in retrospect. It makes me question if our deep dive into these indicators is more about comforting ourselves with a narrative than actually predicting future price action. I'm not saying they're useless for understanding the macro landscape, but relying on them for short-term tactical decisions feels increasingly like a fool's errand in this high-frequency world. What are your thoughts? Am I overstating the case here? Push back on this; I'm genuinely curious to hear other perspectives.