Thoughts on $Y and potential breakdown
Been watching $Y a bit today, and the daily close is going to be interesting. It's been range-bound around the 847.60-847.90 area for a while now, and we're currently testing the lower end of that. If we get a sustained break below 847.60 on some decent volume, especially into tomorrow, it could signal a deeper move down. My invalidation for that short-term bear scenario would be a reclaim of 847.90 and a strong close above it, which would put us back into the prior range.
It's not a high-conviction trade for me given the current macro picture, but something worth keeping an eye on if you're looking for intraday movement. Just feels like it's itching for a decision point soon.
I've noticed $Y hovering around that range too. It does feel like it's been consolidating for a while, and a break either way could be significant. What kind of volume are you looking for to confirm the breakdown?