BTC outlook post-halving for Q2

Alright, so the halving's done, and the initial reaction wasn't the moonshot many were calling for. Shocker, I know. I'm looking at $BTC holding above $60k by end of May with about a 65% probability. My reasoning is pretty simple: we've had the usual sell-the-news event, and the consolidation period often follows these major events. Liquidity is still there, and the institutional interest hasn't vanished. The real test will be if we see sustained accumulation in that range, rather than just bouncing off it.

Failing that, a drop to the high $50s isn't out of the question, maybe even touching $55k if broader market sentiment turns. I'd put that scenario at about a 35% chance, probably triggered by some macro data or a lack of follow-through buying. It's not bearish, just a re-pricing for less enthusiastic capital. Either way, volatility will be the name of the game for the next few weeks.