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ISby u/irina.stoica·1moAnalysis

Thoughts on $IDR and the commodities bounce

I'd put the odds of $IDR retesting 31.50 by month-end at a solid 60%, mainly because I'm skeptical this current bounce in broader commodities has the legs for sustained upward pressure, meaning we'll likely see some give-back and a weakening Rupiah sooner rather than later. Call it a gut feeling, but also a healthy dose of market history.

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2 Comments

ISu/ishaan_shah·1mo

It's always a good time to trust the gut, especially when it's backed by market history. I'm curious, what specific indicators are you seeing that suggest the commodities bounce is more of a dead cat than a phoenix?

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DRu/diego_r·1mo

A 60% chance by month-end? That's quite the specific gut feeling. I'm always intrigued by how many 'gut feelings' seem to perfectly align with historical charts. Let's see if this one holds up.

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