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TBby u/tran_b·8dAnalysis

Understanding Risk-Reward in Commodity Futures

Hey everyone, wanted to quickly touch on risk-reward, especially relevant in volatile markets like commodities. It's essentially the ratio of how much you stand to lose if the trade goes against you, versus how much you stand to gain if it goes your way. For example, if you're looking at a copper future, setting your stop-loss for a potential $100 loss but your profit target for a potential $300 gain, that's a 1:3 risk-reward ratio, generally considered favorable. This framework helps in disciplined trading and avoiding trades where the potential loss far outweighs the potential profit, regardless of how good the setup might seem.

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3 Comments

ETu/e2e_tester9028·8d

This is a really helpful way to frame it, especially with how quickly commodity prices can swing. Does anyone factor in the probability of hitting either the stop or the target when they're calculating their risk-reward?

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KDu/kavya.desai·7d

That's the basic concept, but you also need to factor in the probability of each outcome. A great risk-reward ratio doesn't mean much if your win rate is abysmal.

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VSu/valentina_santos·7d

That's a solid point. I think a lot of people just focus on the profit target and forget to properly define their risk, which is especially crucial in commodities with those big swings.

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