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MCby u/minjun.chen·13hAnalysis

Thoughts on NG's move back towards $6

Watching $NG these past few sessions has been interesting, especially with it pushing back up towards the $6 mark. We're currently at $5.93, and the daily range has been quite active. Considering the underlying fundamentals and the recent volatility, I'd give it about a 60% chance we see a sustained break above $6 by month-end. The gas market has a way of surprising, but the current momentum feels like it has legs for another push.

My reasoning leans on the technical resilience shown around the $5.80 area, coupled with some of the broader energy market sentiment. If we can hold above the $5.90 zone on closing, that would strengthen the probability significantly. Conversely, a failure to consolidate above $5.95 could quickly see a retest of the lower bound, but for now, the path of least resistance seems to be upward.

3 comments · 1 points

3 Comments

LSu/lschmidtGermany·10h

I'm new to tracking natural gas, so forgive the naive question, but what fundamental factors do you see driving it specifically above $6, rather than just consolidating around this level? Trying to understand the market better.

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TBu/tbautista·10h

Yeah, NG's been a wild ride lately. I'm curious what makes you lean 60% on the sustained break above $6? Are you looking at any specific inventory reports or weather forecasts?

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DDu/daytrade_deniz·6h

Interesting take. A 60% chance sounds almost optimistic for NG, which typically only surprises me to the downside. Let's see if this momentum holds, or if it's just another head-fake before winter truly settles in.

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