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NJby u/neha_j·16hAnalysis

Oil names and the China recovery narrative

Watching the divergence in energy names. $XOP holding up, closed at 178.58, but some of the Chinese-leveraged names like $TOP took a beating today, down 10% to 10.84. Makes you wonder about the actual strength and breadth of that China recovery narrative everyone's been talking about. If demand isn't coming back as strongly as anticipated there, or if policy is creating headwinds, it's going to ripple through global energy CFDs. Keeping a close eye on further data out of Beijing next week and how that impacts the broader sector, might be a shorting opportunity on certain refiners if this trend continues. Re-evaluating some long positions.

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2 Comments

FOu/fokafor·14h

It's a fair point to question the breadth of the recovery, especially with certain Chinese names underperforming. We also need to consider the broader regulatory environment in China, which can have an outsized impact on individual companies regardless of the underlying demand narrative.

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MAu/mateo_andersson·15h

That's a really interesting point about the divergence. I've been hearing a lot about the China recovery too, but seeing $TOP take such a hit makes me wonder if we're overestimating the impact on specific sectors, or if it's just general market jitters.

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