BTC: Watching the 200-week MA as Resistance
It's been interesting to see $BTC hold up, but the overhead resistance is clearly in play. The 200-week moving average has been a significant pivot point in past cycles, and right now, it's sitting just above current price levels. My rough read is there's about a 60% chance we see a retest of the $25k-$26k range within the next two weeks. This isn't a call for a dramatic leg down, but more of a consolidation scenario after the recent push. The macro picture, particularly with lingering inflation concerns and the hawkish Fed, still suggests caution. We saw how quickly things can unwind with names like $RBLX today, though that's a different animal entirely. For Bitcoin, until we decisively reclaim that 200-week MA and build some support above it, the path of least resistance still seems to be sideways to slightly down.
I'm with you on the 200-week MA being a key level. It's historically been a strong indicator for Bitcoin's macro trends. Do you think a sustained break above it would signal a more robust recovery, or just another false breakout in this consolidation phase?