Thoughts on USDSEK at these levels, feeling a bit trapped
Been watching $USDSEK pretty closely the last few days, and it's definitely in an interesting spot. We've seen it push down a bit, currently sitting around 9.4863. What's been catching my eye is how it's been reacting around the 9.47-9.48 zone. It feels like there's some decent support building up there, given how many times it's bounced off it. I'm not calling a definite reversal, but the downside seems a bit exhausted for now after the recent move lower. The daily range today, 9.46936–9.53654, shows some volatility, but the lower bound is holding firm.
Now, the risk for me is if we decisively break below that 9.46-9.47 level. If that happens, then the whole idea of this support holding probably goes out the window, and we could see a quick move towards the 9.40 handle. Conversely, if it can hold this area and perhaps get a bit of a bounce, I wouldn't be surprised to see it test the 9.53-9.54 region again. Just my two cents on it, definitely a tricky one to read with conviction right now.