Thoughts on TSLA's Q3 delivery numbers and the 400 target

Hey everyone, been watching $TSLA closely these past few weeks, especially with the Q3 delivery numbers looming. There's a lot of chatter about them hitting 400k deliveries, and the stock's been a bit jumpy around the $375 mark, though it's down a touch today. I'm leaning towards them not quite making that 400k target this quarter. My gut says something closer to 385-390k.

My reasoning is multifaceted; there's been some reported production bottlenecks in certain areas, and while demand seems strong, scaling up to 400k in a single quarter is a hefty leap from previous numbers, even for Tesla. I'd put the probability of them hitting exactly 400k at maybe 30%. More likely, around 60% chance they land in that 380-395k range. A miss, even a slight one, could see some short-term pressure, but honestly, it wouldn't change the long-term story for me. Just thinking aloud about the near-term volatility.