Thoughts on OpenAI's next big release timing

Been pondering the OpenAI release schedule lately, specifically around when we might see something significant enough to move the needle beyond just minor API updates. My gut feeling is we're looking at a 65% probability of a major foundational model or architecture announcement hitting the wires before the end of Q3. They've been quieter than usual on the core tech front recently, almost too quiet, which often precedes a bang. The market seems to be pricing in continuous incremental improvements, but a genuine leap could definitely shake things up across the $SPCX and $DEFI sectors that are so closely tied to AI's performance.

I'm not expecting a new Sora-level reveal, more like a GPT-5 or similar substantial architectural shift that offers a demonstrable jump in reasoning or multimodal capabilities. Anything less, and the hype machine might start sputtering, which I doubt they'd risk after the last few impressive showings. Just a hunch, but the silence feels pregnant with potential.