NVDA hitting $1,000 by end of Q2 '24: my 40% probability

Been watching NVDA like a hawk, obviously. The recent surge, particularly after the GTC announcements and the market's digestion of those new chips, has been impressive but also makes me wonder about the immediate future. We're currently sitting around $950, and the momentum feels strong, but that's precisely why I'm cautious. I'm putting a 40% probability on NVDA hitting $1,000 by the end of Q2 2024. Why not higher? Well, we’ve already priced in a lot of good news. The market is notoriously good at ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’, and while GTC wasn't exactly a rumor, the excitement around it might have front-loaded some gains. The new chip cycle is a multi-year story, not a quarterly one. I think we could see some profit-taking or at least a cooling-off period before the next major catalyst, especially if there's any perceived hiccup in execution or a macro headwind that affects broader tech. Don't get me wrong, long-term I'm still bullish on the AI narrative and NVDA's position, but short-term, that last $50 is going to require a bit more than just inertia. It'll need either a fresh, unexpected positive announcement, or a sustained market-wide rally that drags everything higher. Otherwise, a bit of consolidation around these levels wouldn't surprise me one bit. Always pays to remember that trees don't grow to the sky in a straight line, even AI trees.