NVDA Q1 ER: My take on the $1000 mark

With NVIDIA's Q1 earnings just around the corner, everyone's got their eyes on whether $NVDA can breach and hold the $1000 level post-report. Personally, I'm giving it a 60% probability that we see a sustained push past $1000 within a week of the announcement, assuming the revenue and EPS figures are largely in line or slightly above consensus. My reasoning isn't based on a belief in an unprecedented beat, but rather on the persistent underlying demand for their Hopper and Blackwell architectures, which isn't fully reflected in current analyst models that are still catching up to the sheer scale of data center buildouts. The key, however, will be the forward guidance on their next-gen products and any clear indication of an acceleration in their software platform monetization. A weak outlook or any hint of delays in Blackwell shipments, on the other hand, could easily see profit-taking drag it back into the $900-$950 range, possibly even touching the 50-day EMA around $880, which I'd assign a 40% chance of occurring in that scenario.