SMCI holding 300, a look at June's range

Watching $SMCI closely here. After the recent chop, it's trading around 31.68 today. The 300 level seems to be holding as a psychological and technical floor for now. The question is how much steam is left in the broader AI rotation as we head into summer.

For June, I'm leaning towards a sustained push above 350 being increasingly difficult without a significant catalyst. We've seen some profit-taking, and while the underlying narrative for AI remains strong, the current price reflects a good deal of that optimism already. I'd assign maybe a 35-40% probability of $SMCI closing above 350 by month-end. Conversely, a retest of the low 280s seems more plausible, perhaps a 55-60% chance, especially if the broader tech sentiment falters or we see further consolidation from recent high-flyers. The market just doesn't seem to have the same conviction it did a few weeks back for these names to just keep running without pause. The volume tells a story, and it's not one of aggressive accumulation at these levels.