Thoughts on AI market reaction to next major LLM release

Been pondering the impact of the next major LLM release from any of the big players, say, Open AI or Google, on the broader AI market. My gut says we're due for a solid reaction, possibly a bump in valuations for key AI component suppliers and even some of the more niche application companies that can quickly integrate new capabilities. I'd give it about a 65% probability we see a sector-wide uplift, maybe 2-3% for the larger caps like $NVDA and $GOOGL, within a week of a well-received announcement, largely due to renewed optimism and speculation on accelerated development timelines. The alternative, a lukewarm reception leading to sideways action, seems about 35% likely, especially if the new model doesn't represent a significant leap from current capabilities, or if it comes with unexpected compute demands that could temper enthusiasm. It's an interesting setup, watching how much of these future releases are already priced in versus how much real impact they still hold for fresh momentum. What are your thoughts on this?