Thoughts on AI's Impact on Dollar Strength by Year-End

Been thinking a lot about the AI market, specifically how the narrative and actual advancements might feed into broader macro trends. With the dollar showing some interesting moves lately—sitting around $USD 100.65 after that recent rally—I'm starting to wonder if the AI hype cycle could actually be a significant tailwind for the greenback by year-end. My current read is that the US, with its leading position in foundational AI research and a significant portion of the major players, will continue to attract a disproportionate share of global capital looking to participate in this growth. This isn't just about direct investment into AI companies, but also ancillary industries that will benefit from this tech boom, and potentially even a flight to quality as some countries lag in adoption or face structural changes from AI.

I'd give it about a 60% probability that we see $USD push above the 104.50-105.00 range by end of Q4, largely due to this 'AI premium' attracting capital flows. My reasoning is twofold: firstly, the sheer scale of R&D and deployment planned for AI in the US over the next 12-18 months is massive, and much of that capital is already on its way or allocated. Secondly, global central banks are still navigating very different inflationary landscapes, and while others might be cutting, the US could afford to remain relatively hawkish if growth holds up, further strengthening the dollar. Curious if anyone else is seeing similar patterns or has a counter-thesis.