Thoughts on Y's Next Move: A Probabilistic Look

Been watching $Y a bit closer lately, especially with the recent activity around the 847 handle. It feels like we're at a bit of an inflection point. I'm leaning towards a higher probability of us seeing $Y test the 850 level before the end of next week, let's say by Friday, March 15th. I'd put that probability around 65-70%.

The reasoning isn't overly complex. We've been consolidating in this range for a bit, and the 847.79 level seems to be acting as a minor magnet. Looking at the intraday range today (847.62–847.9), it's tight, which often precedes a move. There's a decent amount of chatter building up around a potential new partnership announcement that could act as a catalyst. If that news drops, or even if the market starts to price it in anticipation, the path of least resistance looks to be upwards towards 850. The alternative, a break lower, seems less likely given the general bullish sentiment around AI names right now, unless there's a broader market pullback. Just my read of the tea leaves, not advice to anyone.