Thoughts on AI model licensing and regulatory creep by year-end

Been pondering the regulatory landscape forming around advanced AI models, specifically regarding licensing or some form of government oversight for deployment. We're seeing more chatter from various bodies about the societal impact of increasingly capable models.

My take is there's about a 60% chance we'll have a concrete, high-level proposal or even draft legislation floating around concerning mandatory licensing or registration for deploying models above a certain computational threshold or capability level by year-end. This isn't about the individual developer, but the corporate entities or larger research institutions. The reasoning is multifaceted: national security concerns, election interference worries, and the general