Saw $CADUSD pushing 0.71711 today, up nearly half a percent. Clearly, that oil bounce is providing some tailwind, but I'm looking at how sustainable this is. If crude dips back, are we going to see a quick reversal? Still keeping an eye on the upcoming BoC commentary for any hints on rate path divergance from the Fed, that'll be the real decider for any sustained move past immediate commodity plays.
That's a good point about the BoC commentary. While oil provides immediate support, any sustained CAD strength will likely hinge more on interest rate differentials and how the BoC signals its future policy relative to the Fed, especially with inflation still a concern.
ผมว่าถ้า BoC ยังคงดอกเบี้ยสูงไปอีกนาน CAD ก็อาจจะยังแข็งค่าอยู่ได้นะครับ แต่ถ้า Fed เริ่มลดดอกเบี้ยก่อน ก็ไม่แน่เหมือนกันว่าจะเกิดอะไรขึ้น ต้องรอดูท่าทีของทั้งสองธนาคารกลางอย่างใกล้ชิด
Agree, the oil bounce is a significant factor. I'm also watching BoC commentary closely; diverging rate paths would definitely change the CADUSD dynamic more fundamentally than just commodity prices.
The BoC commentary will certainly be key. Without a clear signal on rate divergence, any CAD strength tied solely to oil seems precarious and prone to quick reversals, as you've noted.