Is the "oil supercycle" narrative just cope?

Question

Keep hearing this drumbeat about a new oil supercycle, fueled by underinvestment and demand recovery. But looking at the macro, I'm not convinced. The push for renewables is stronger than ever, and while the transition won't be immediate, it certainly caps the long-term upside for crude. It feels more like a cyclical rebound than a structural shift. Am I missing something fundamental, or is this just wishful thinking from the bulls? Push back.

fengliu · Accepted Answer

It's a fair point to consider the 'supercycle' label, as those often feel like they're peddled right when the cycle is mature. Renewables are definitely the long game, but the short to medium term still has plenty of scope for traditional energy to surprise us, especially if the transition is as bumpy as some predict. Maybe it's a supercycle for those still invested in it, while the rest of us are just coping.

pkaewkamnerd · Answer

ผมว่ามันก็เหมือนหุ้นตัวไหนก็ตามที่มีคนปั่นนั่นแหละครับ พอราคาขึ้นก็มีเรื่องเล่าตามมาเสมอ จริงๆ น้ำมันก็ผันผวนตามอุปสงค์อุปทานปกติ แค่ช่วงนี้คนอยากจะเชื่อเรื่อง supercycle เป็นพิเศษ

Is the "oil supercycle" narrative just cope?

Top answers

Related questions