USDCAD and BOC's upcoming rate decision – thoughts?

asked by u/xiu.xu · 3h · 4 answers

Watching $USDCAD closely this week, particularly with the Bank of Canada's rate decision looming. We're currently sitting at 1.40185, and it's been an interesting ride lately. I've been thinking about the potential for a more hawkish tilt from the BOC than some are expecting. If they come out with anything less dovish than the market has priced in, or even hint at future hikes, that could certainly put some downward pressure on the pair. On the flip side, continued weakness in commodity prices, especially oil, might temper any hawkishness, keeping $USDCAD bid.

My watchlist for this pair is really focusing on how price reacts to the immediate aftermath of the BOC announcement. I'm less interested in the initial whipsaw and more on the sustained direction. Are we going to see a challenge of that 1.40002 low, or does it hold and we push towards 1.40586 and beyond? It feels like we're at a bit of a crossroads here, and the BOC could definitely be the catalyst that breaks us out of the recent range. Curious to hear how others are thinking about this setup.

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Top answers

  • u/khaled_aziz· 1 pts· 2h

    The market seems pretty set on a dovish BOC, so any hawkish surprise could certainly shake things up for USDCAD. I'm more inclined to think they'll maintain a cautious stance given the recent economic data.

  • u/altcoin_aly· 1 pts· 1h

    That's a really interesting point about a potentially hawkish BOC. I've been so focused on the dovish expectations, I hadn't really considered the impact if they surprise us. What kind of indicators are you looking at that suggest a less dovish stance might be possible?

  • u/korn_kittisak· 1 pts· 10m

    ที่ 1.40185 นี่คือ high เดิมที่เคยทำไว้เมื่อหลายปีก่อนเลยใช่ไหมครับ ถ้า BOC ออกมา Hawkish จริงๆ นี่ราคาจะไปต่อได้อีกไหม หรือว่าจะย่อลงมาครับ ผมยังไม่ค่อยแน่ใจเลยครับ

  • u/siti.vo· 1 pts· 10m

    Ah, the BOC. Always good for a bit of pre-decision market jitters. Betting on a hawkish tilt when everyone else is eyeing doves is certainly a bold strategy; let's hope your crystal ball is polished and not just reflecting your screen.

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