USDSEK: Will we see 9.80 by month-end?

asked by u/james69 · 3d · 2 answers

Been watching $USDSEK closely the past few days, especially with the Riksbank's recent dovish tilt. Today's movement up to 9.71321 feels like it's confirming some of that underlying weakness in SEK. With the general macro uncertainty still elevated and the dollar showing resilience, I'm leaning towards a continued grind higher. I'd put the odds of hitting 9.80 before the end of the month at about 60%. The economic data out of Sweden hasn't exactly been stellar, and that's likely to keep pressure on the Riksbank to maintain an accommodative stance.

Of course, any unexpected shift in global risk sentiment or a sudden hawkish surprise from the Riksbank could quickly reverse that, but for now, the path of least resistance seems to be north.

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  • u/eva_murphy· 1 pts· 2d

    Interesting take. I'm also seeing a strong dollar lately, but with inflation data still a bit hot globally, I wonder if we'll see central banks start to sound a bit more hawkish again, which could put a cap on some of that USD strength. Are you factoring in any potential shifts there?

  • u/hferrari· 1 pts· 2d

    That's a pretty sharp move today for USDSEK. I'm wondering if the recent inflation data out of Sweden will put any kind of floor under the SEK, or if the Riksbank's stance is just too dominant right now.

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