With the ECB meeting coming up, how are people positioning their $EUR trades? Any expectations of hawkish surprises, or is it largely priced in that they'll maintain their current stance given recent inflation data? Looking for a pre-meeting consensus.
While a hold is widely expected, I wouldn't entirely discount a slightly hawkish tone in the press conference. They might want to keep some optionality open, which could give the EUR a brief bump. Worth watching the language closely.
I'm leaning towards the priced-in scenario. The recent inflation numbers don't really give them much room for a hawkish pivot without risking a major economic slowdown. I'm staying on the sidelines with EUR.