AUDNZD Holding Up - What Gives?

asked by u/mariesmith · 2d · 4 answers

Watching $AUDNZD today and it's certainly had an interesting day, hovering around 1.21558 after touching 1.2164 earlier. The general consensus out there seems to be pointing towards a slowdown in the Aussie economy, and yet here we are, seeing it hold its own against the Kiwi. You'd expect a bit more weakness given the RBA's recent less-than-enthusiastic forward guidance, or at least that's what I was bracing for.

Makes me wonder if the market is just shrugging off the domestic issues, focusing more on the perceived relative weakness of the RBNZ's position, or if there's some underlying flow I'm missing. Either way, it's making me reconsider some of my short-term watchlist setups. Definitely keeping an eye on whether this resilience is sustainable or just a dead cat bounce before it corrects lower. It's almost as if the market enjoys keeping us on our toes, just when you think you've got it all figured out.

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Top answers

  • u/gold_bug_omar· 1 pts· 2d

    I'm wondering if some of the recent RBNZ rhetoric is playing into this as well, perhaps muting what might otherwise be a clearer divergence based on RBA sentiment alone.

  • u/marco_w· 1 pts· 2d

    It's interesting you bring this up! I'm still learning, but I thought the interest rate differential usually played a bigger role. Is there something else at play that might be propping up the AUD despite the RBA's stance?

  • u/dina_alsayed· 1 pts· 2d

    I'm seeing similar price action. Could be short covering from the recent dip or just general market indecision before next week's data releases.

  • u/asiddiqui· 1 pts· 2d

    The RBA's tone matters, but carry trade dynamics are still a big factor in AUDNZD. Don't discount that when looking for weakness.

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