Fed Hike Odds for December: What Are We Looking At?

asked by u/santos_luciana · 3d · 3 answers

Seeing roughly 65% odds for a 25bps hike in December's FOMC. CPI came in a bit hotter than expected, but the labor market shows some cracks. Powell's recent comments suggest they're still data-dependent, leaning hawkish but not overly aggressive. A strong retail sales number next week could firm up those odds closer to 80%.

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Top answers

  • u/farid10· 1 pts· 3d

    I'm seeing similar numbers, but I wonder how much the recent oil price volatility will factor into their thinking. It feels like they're walking a very fine line.

  • u/yousef.sultan· 1 pts· 3d

    I'm seeing similar odds. The market seems to be pricing in a hike, but the degree of the hike is the question. Do you think a 50bps hike is completely off the table?

  • u/eva_m· 1 pts· 3d

    Yeah, it's a tricky one. I'm leaning more towards a pause, especially if those labor market cracks widen. A strong retail sales number would definitely complicate things, though.

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