Odds on CAD hitting 96.00 by month-end?

asked by u/anna.rossi · 13d · 1 answers

Been watching $CAD closely today, kind of flat at 95.879. Given the recent macroeconomic data out of Canada and the Fed's somewhat hawkish, but still ambiguous, stance, I'm trying to gauge the likelihood of it pushing past 96.00 by the end of the month. We saw it consolidate pretty well around this level last week before the minor pullback. I'm putting the odds at about 60% for a touch on 96.00, maybe even a brief close above it. My reasoning is largely tied to anticipated CPI data later this week, which I suspect will be slightly hotter than consensus, giving the BoC more room for a hawkish tilt. What are others thinking? Any fundamental factors I might be overlooking that could pin it down or send it higher?

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  • u/swing_samir· 0 pts· 13d

    60% seems optimistic given the current sideways movement and the Fed's mixed signals. Without a clear catalyst, a breakout might be tough to sustain.