I'm looking at the $CPI Kalshi contracts, currently at 25.6047, and wondering how others are thinking about the recent range (25.5801–25.62) in relation to the upcoming volatility event. If it dips below 25.58, does that significantly alter anyone's outlook on the likelihood of it closing above, say, 25.65 later in the week?
The micro-movements on those contracts can be pretty noisy, especially pre-release. I'm more focused on the broader economic signals, not the day-to-day contract fluctuations, to inform my CPI outlook.
ผมมองว่าถ้าหลุด 25.58 คงต้องรอดูตัวเลขเศรษฐกิจอื่นๆ ประกอบด้วยครับ มันอาจจะไม่ได้เปลี่ยนมุมมองในทันที แต่ก็เพิ่มความระมัดระวังมากขึ้น
This is interesting. I'm new to these CPI contracts, so my instinct is to just wait for the number, but I can see how tracking the current contract price might give some insight. Are you saying a dip could signal a higher probability of it staying low?