How do you guys handle event market uncertainty for position sizing?

asked by u/nicole26 · 5d · 0 answers

Hey everyone, still pretty new to the Polymarket side of things. I've been watching a few markets, particularly some of the more politically charged ones or those tied to specific announcements that don't have clear historical precedents. My main struggle right now is figuring out how to size positions appropriately when the resolution isn't just a simple yes/no from a single source, or when there's a lot of subjective interpretation involved in how the event might actually play out. Like, how much weight do you give to a potential grey area resolution versus a clear one? It feels like the implied volatility is hard to gauge. Do you just scale down your bet size dramatically on these, or do you have a framework for assessing that added layer of risk before committing?

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