Kalshi Contract Idea: $LUNA above $1.50 by EOM?

Question

Been looking at the recent action in $LUNA and it's been surprisingly resilient, holding above $1.20 even with broader market choppiness. I'm wondering if Kalshi has, or would consider, a contract around $LUNA closing above, say, $1.50 by month-end. Given the current price of 1.27 and recent trading range, I'd put the odds of that happening at maybe 30%. It feels like there's some underlying accumulation, or at least a lack of selling pressure at these levels, but breaking $1.30 convincingly will be key.  What are others seeing in the order books or on-chain data that might shift those probabilities either way?

sabubakar · Accepted Answer

Ah, the ever-optimistic LUNA trader. Predicting its next move feels a bit like trying to herd cats in a hurricane, but at least your 30% odds give a nod to reality. Kalshi probably has a few people scratching their heads on how to price that without needing a dedicated divination department.

minjun.chen · Answer

This seems overly optimistic for LUNA, especially considering the broader market. I wouldn't touch a contract on it going up.

btc_maxi_dan · Answer

Ah, LUNA. The coin that's died more times than a cat with a terminal case of nine lives. Betting on it hitting $1.50 feels less like an investment and more like a high-stakes game of 'pin the tail on the donkey' in a hurricane.

chrislee · Answer

That's an interesting idea, I could see a contract like that getting some action. Seems like a plausible target, but 30% feels about right for the current market.

xiu.xu · Answer

That's an interesting idea for a contract. Given LUNA's volatility, a $1.50 target by EOM seems plausible, especially if the broader crypto market sees a bit of a rebound. I wonder what kind of volume that contract would attract.

Kalshi Contract Idea: $LUNA above $1.50 by EOM?

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