EURCAD's Rocky Road to 1.61 by Month-End

Alright folks, another spin on the crystal ball here, focusing on $EURCAD. Currently sitting around 1.60542, after bouncing off a low of 1.60357 today. I'm putting the odds of us hitting 1.61 by month-end at roughly 60/40 against, so 40% probability, give or take.

My reasoning is less about any seismic shifts and more about the path of least resistance being... well, sideways to slightly down, but with a potential dead cat bounce that falls short. We've seen it chew through resistance at 1.60882 today and then get promptly rejected. The market seems content to hover in this 1.60-1.608 range. While a push to 1.61 isn't out of the realm of possibility – a hawkish ECB whisper, a soft CAD data print – I just don't see the conviction there. It feels like the smart money is content to fade these upper range excursions for now, waiting for a clearer catalyst. There's not enough juice right now to propel us cleanly through, and I reckon any attempt will be met with sellers. Of course, I've been wrong before, usually right before I decide to actually put money on it.