Lesson Learned: Not trusting my initial read on election markets

I've been kicking myself over the last few election cycles on Polymarket, particularly the US midterms and the recent Canadian federal election. My initial read, often formed weeks out based on polling aggregates and historical data, has consistently been closer to the eventual outcome than my eventual trades. What happens is, as the event draws closer, I get caught up in the daily news cycle, the noise, the latest controversies, and start second-guessing myself. I'll see a slight shift in a single poll, or a prominent pundit's take, and it'll erode my conviction. This leads to either not taking a position I should have, or worse, closing out a good position at a loss, only to see it resolve in my initial favor.

It's a classic case of overthinking and letting short-term volatility overshadow the broader, more stable trends. My mistake wasn't necessarily a bad initial analysis, but rather a lack of discipline in sticking to that analysis. I'm learning to put more weight on my pre-event due diligence and less on the daily narrative shifts. The market price reflects a lot of that noise already; trusting my own edge – my interpretation of the underlying fundamentals – is where the value lies.