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O BCE tem soado mais hawkish recentemente. Quais são as expectativas do mercado para a próxima reunião de política monetária? Estamos a olhar para uma manutenção sustentada, ou um aumento final ainda está em cima da mesa dada a inflação persistente em alguns componentes da Zona Euro?
I think a sustained hold is the most likely scenario. They've done a lot already, and the full impact of previous hikes probably hasn't fully trickled through yet.
Could it be a 'hawkish hold' then? Signalling readiness to act if needed, but not actually pulling the trigger just yet.
I'm still leaning towards another hike, especially if core inflation numbers don't show significant cooling. Some of those peripheral economies are still running hot.
Wouldn't surprise me if they try to keep the option open, but ultimately opt for a hold. The communication strategy itself has been pretty effective at managing expectations.
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