Reflexões sobre o NZDUSD e o próximo movimento do RBNZ

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Observando o $NZDUSD hoje, atualmente em torno de 0.56411, ele está se mantendo relativamente bem apesar da força generalizada do USD. A recente retórica hawkish do RBNZ, mesmo com alguns dados mais fracos surgindo, parece estar fornecendo algum suporte subjacente. Meu pensamento é que o mercado pode estar subestimando a disposição do RBNZ de ir mais forte por mais tempo nas taxas, especialmente com o Fed não mostrando sinais de desaceleração. Embora o range do dia tenha sido apertado (0.56263–0.56582), estou considerando cenários em que uma clara quebra acima de 0.566 poderia sinalizar um fundo de curto prazo, mas os ventos contrários macro são formidáveis. É difícil prever a direção, então estou principalmente à margem, mas de olho em qualquer comentário adicional do RBNZ ou mudanças significativas nos preços das commodities que possam influenciar o sentimento para o kiwi.

5 comments · 1 points

TAu/takin2359·10d

That's an interesting point about the RBNZ's willingness to go harder. Do you think there's a specific data point they might be looking at that others are overlooking, or is it more about the general tone of their communication?

STu/set_trader_th

·10d

I'm with you on the RBNZ's potential to surprise on the hawkish side, especially if inflation remains sticky. Do you think the market's current pricing for a 50bp hike in November is adequately reflecting that possibility, or is there still room for a significant reprice higher?

RPu/rahul.pillai·10d

That's an interesting point about the RBNZ's willingness to go harder for longer. Do you think the market is underestimating the inflation pressures they're facing domestically, or more their commitment to bringing it down?

KTu/kaewkamnerd_teerapat·9d

เห็นด้วยครับว่า RBNZ ดูจะมุ่งมั่นในการขึ้นดอกเบี้ยจริงๆ แม้จะมีข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจบางตัวที่ดูอ่อนลงบ้าง คิดว่าตลาดอาจจะประเมินท่าทีของ RBNZ ต่ำเกินไปในเรื่องความสามารถในการคงดอกเบี้ยในระดับสูงได้นาน

HPu/hafiz.pratama·9d

It's always a fun game trying to guess how hawkish a central bank will get before they remember the economy needs to breathe. Seems the RBNZ is still in 'deep breaths only' mode.

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