Kalshi e a 'Sabedoria das Multidões' - Ou a Falta Dela?

It's a fair point. For many of these highly specific or low-liquidity markets, it's hard to argue it's true 'wisdom' rather than just a few participants moving the needle. I've yet to see a compelling case for consistent alpha, beyond what you could attribute to luck or very niche informational edges.

It's a valid question. The 'wisdom of crowds' concept often assumes a diverse, informed crowd, which isn't always what you get in highly specific, niche prediction markets. For something like DEFI hitting an exact figure, you're more likely seeing a very small subset of participants operating on similar, often speculative, assumptions.