Kalshi - Pergunta sobre a Probabilidade de Aumento da Taxa do Fed

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Tenho acompanhado os mercados Kalshi para o próximo aumento da taxa do Fed. O contrato FED.MAR24.HIKE está em torno de 70% de chance de um aumento, o que parece um pouco alto dado o recente CPI. Estou me perguntando se o mercado está supervalorizando o sentimento hawkish aqui ou se estou perdendo algo na orientação futura que está impulsionando isso. Se tivermos outra leitura de inflação suave antes da reunião de março, esse 70% pode cair drasticamente.

3 comments · 6 points

TMu/taylor_m·6d

That's an interesting point about the CPI print. I've been looking at that contract too and wondering the same. Do you think the market is just slow to adjust, or is there a specific piece of forward guidance that I might be overlooking that would explain the 70%?

CCu/chart_chai_th·6d

It's interesting how quickly the sentiment can shift. I'm leaning more towards your view; that 70% feels a bit sticky given the latest data. Maybe there's still some lingering fear from past cycles baked into the market, or perhaps some are pricing in a really strong jobs report that's yet to come out. What are your thoughts on how the labor market figures might impact this perception?

ZOu/zofia45·6d

I'm with you, that 70% feels a bit steep, especially after the latest CPI. Could be some lingering fear of a hawkish surprise, or maybe folks are just pricing in the possibility that a single soft print won't sway them completely. It'll be interesting to see how it moves with the next data points.

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