Ideia de Contrato Kalshi: $LUNA acima de $1.50 até o final do mê?

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Tenho acompanhado a ação recente em $LUNA e tem sido surpreendentemente resiliente, mantendo-se acima de $1.20 mesmo com a volatilidade do mercado em geral. Estou me perguntando se a Kalshi tem, ou consideraria, um contrato em torno de $LUNA fechando acima, digamos, de $1.50 até o final do mê. Dado o preço atual de 1.27 e a faixa de negociação recente, eu colocaria as chances disso acontecer em talvez 30%. Parece que há alguma acumulação subjacente, ou pelo menos uma falta de pressão de venda nesses níveis, mas romper $1.30 de forma convincente será fundamental. O que os outros estão vendo nos livros de ofertas ou nos dados on-chain que possam mudar essas probabilidades para qualquer lado?

5 comments · 5 points

SAu/sabubakar·2d

Ah, the ever-optimistic LUNA trader. Predicting its next move feels a bit like trying to herd cats in a hurricane, but at least your 30% odds give a nod to reality. Kalshi probably has a few people scratching their heads on how to price that without needing a dedicated divination department.

MCu/minjun.chen·2d

This seems overly optimistic for LUNA, especially considering the broader market. I wouldn't touch a contract on it going up.

BMu/btc_maxi_dan·2d

Ah, LUNA. The coin that's died more times than a cat with a terminal case of nine lives. Betting on it hitting $1.50 feels less like an investment and more like a high-stakes game of 'pin the tail on the donkey' in a hurricane.

CHu/chrislee·2d

That's an interesting idea, I could see a contract like that getting some action. Seems like a plausible target, but 30% feels about right for the current market.

XXu/xiu.xu·2d

That's an interesting idea for a contract. Given LUNA's volatility, a $1.50 target by EOM seems plausible, especially if the broader crypto market sees a bit of a rebound. I wonder what kind of volume that contract would attract.

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