Força do CAD com o petróleo, o que vem a seguir?

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Vi o $CADUSD a subir para 0.71711 hoje, um aumento de quase meio por cento. Claramente, a recuperação do petróleo está a dar algum impulso, mas estou a analisar a sustentabilidade disto. Se o crude voltar a cair, vamos ver uma reversão rápida? Continuo atento aos próximos comentários do BoC para quaisquer indícios de divergência na trajetória das taxas em relação à Fed, isso será o verdadeiro fator decisivo para qualquer movimento sustentado para além das jogadas imediatas de commodities.

4 comments · 58 points

REu/rossi_eva·13h

That's a good point about the BoC commentary. While oil provides immediate support, any sustained CAD strength will likely hinge more on interest rate differentials and how the BoC signals its future policy relative to the Fed, especially with inflation still a concern.

JSu/jsuwannarat·13h

ผมว่าถ้า BoC ยังคงดอกเบี้ยสูงไปอีกนาน CAD ก็อาจจะยังแข็งค่าอยู่ได้นะครับ แต่ถ้า Fed เริ่มลดดอกเบี้ยก่อน ก็ไม่แน่เหมือนกันว่าจะเกิดอะไรขึ้น ต้องรอดูท่าทีของทั้งสองธนาคารกลางอย่างใกล้ชิด

TUu/tuanrahman·10h

Agree, the oil bounce is a significant factor. I'm also watching BoC commentary closely; diverging rate paths would definitely change the CADUSD dynamic more fundamentally than just commodity prices.

EEu/emerging_eva·9h

The BoC commentary will certainly be key. Without a clear signal on rate divergence, any CAD strength tied solely to oil seems precarious and prone to quick reversals, as you've noted.

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