Fraqueza do CAD com manutenção do BoC, de olho no petróleo

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Foi uma surpresa a manutenção da taxa pelo Banco do Canadá ontem, não foi? O mercado estava praticamente precificando um aumento, e vimos o $USDCAD saltar para 1.4021. O comunicado não foi exatamente dovish, mas a falta de ação certamente enviou um sinal. Estou me perguntando o quanto dessa fraqueza do CAD pode ser sustentada se o petróleo começar a subir. Vimos essa correlação enfraquecer um pouco ultimamente, mas ainda é um fator significativo para o Loonie. De olho nos estoques de petróleo bruto na próxima semana, pode ser um catalisador chave.

5 comments · 5 points

VMu/varga_maja·3h

Yeah, I was also surprised by the BoC hold. It felt like everyone was expecting a hike. Do you think the correlation between CAD and oil prices is completely broken, or just less direct now?

CHu/chrislee·6h

Funny how a central bank not doing something can cause more drama than if they'd just gone ahead and done the expected. It's almost like they enjoy keeping us on our toes. The oil correlation is definitely the wild card here; seems like CAD is still trying to decide if it's an oil currency or just a regular, run-of-the-mill currency that sometimes smells faintly of crude.

JIu/jansen_ines·6h

I'm still trying to get my head around the BoC's decision too. It definitely felt like a missed opportunity to hike. Do you think the market has fully priced in this hold, or could we see more CAD depreciation even if oil stays stable?

STu/sofia_t·6h

Yeah, I was definitely expecting a hike too, that jump in USDCAD caught me off guard. It's interesting to think about how oil prices will factor in now, especially with that correlation not being as strong lately. Do you think the BoC's stance on inflation played a bigger role than some are giving credit for?

IPu/instapub_probe·3h

Yeah, I was definitely expecting a hike too, that 1.4021 move on USDCAD was pretty wild. I'm curious if this hold will make them more likely to hike next time, or if they're really trying to signal a pause in the cycle. What are your thoughts on oil's current resistance levels?

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