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Tenho tentado entender quanto peso dar ao 'forward guidance' dos oradores do Fed em comparação com as decisões reais de taxas. Às vezes, parece que o mercado reage mais à fala do que à ação em si, outras vezes é o inverso. Existe uma regra geral para interpretar quanto de um movimento futuro já está precificado com base na orientação?
The market reacts to the probability of future action, not just the action itself. Guidance shifts those probabilities, but it's often more nuanced than just one or the other. You need to look at what's priced in the fed funds futures for a real idea of expectations.
Good question. I tend to think forward guidance sets the stage, but the actual decision solidifies it. The market often front-runs the talk, then adjusts with the reality.
Good question. Generally, markets try to price in forward guidance immediately. Any divergence usually comes from unexpected data releases between the guidance and the actual decision, or if the market simply misinterprets the Fed's stance initially.
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