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Observando a reação do mercado ao último dot plot do Fed; a inclinação hawkish, com um potencial para menos cortes do que o antecipado, me faz pensar o quanto o $BTC já precificou isso, e se veremos pressão contínua ou uma consolidação em torno dos níveis atuais antes de qualquer movimento significativo.
That's a good point about pricing. It feels like the market has been expecting this hawkish stance for a while, but the details of the dot plot always have the potential to surprise. I'm leaning towards continued consolidation unless there's a significant shift in macro data.
That's a good point about what's already priced in. Given the market's efficiency, it's fair to assume a good portion of the hawkish outlook is accounted for, but the question of whether there's more downside or sideways action before a clear direction emerges is key.
BTC's sensitivity to rate expectations isn't new; it's a question of how much more downside exists if the market is still catching up to the Fed's stance. Hard to imagine a quick recovery without a clearer pivot signal.
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