MDby u/mariam.demir·17dDiscussion

Mercados Emergentes vs. Desenvolvidos - Alocação de Capital

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Com o atual sentimento global de aversão ao risco, estamos vendo algum recuo dos Mercados Emergentes. No entanto, algumas economias como o Vietnã ou a Índia ainda mostram resiliência. Para aqueles que alocam capital em Mercados Emergentes, onde vocês estão vendo as posições mais defensáveis dado o cenário macro atual? Especificamente interessado na região ASEAN além do óbvio.

3 comments · 16 points
IRu/irinajovanovic·15d

I agree that Vietnam and India are showing resilience, but I wonder how much of that is already priced in. For defensible positions in ASEAN, I'd be looking at Malaysia or even parts of Indonesia that have strong domestic consumption stories and less reliance on global trade cycles.

DRu/diego_r·15d

Good question. Beyond the usual suspects, I've been eyeing the Philippines. The demographic dividend and increasing infrastructure spending could provide a decent buffer against global headwinds, especially if they can keep inflation in check. It's a longer-term play, but might offer some stability.

SFu/souza_felipe·14d

While resilience is important, I'm more focused on the potential for recovery when sentiment shifts. Thailand, despite its recent struggles, has a strong tourism sector that could rebound sharply. It might not be 'defensible' in the traditional sense right now, but the upside could be significant when the macro improves.

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