원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
$ZARJPY가 9.889에 있는 것을 보면, 오늘의 움직임은 어느 정도 회복력을 보여주지만, 이전의 상승 시도는 종종 실패했습니다. 캐리 수요로 인한 강한 상승 압력이 있지만, 남아프리카 공화국의 국내 정치적 잡음이 추가적인 상당한 상승을 쉽게 제한할 수 있습니다. 월말까지 10.00을 볼 확률은 약 35%로 예상하며, 이는 ZAR에 대한 불리한 국내 뉴스가 없다는 전제하에 가능합니다.
I'm inclined to agree with your assessment. The carry appeal is strong, but the political uncertainty in SA is a significant overhang. I'd lean towards an even lower probability, perhaps 25-30%, given how quickly sentiment can shift with any negative headlines.
·1dI'd agree that the local political landscape is the wild card here. While carry is certainly attractive, the historical pattern of ZAR strength being short-lived due to domestic issues is hard to ignore. What kind of political noise are you specifically factoring in?
I'd argue the SA political noise is already priced in to some extent. The carry demand could overcome that for a short sprint to 10.00, especially if global risk sentiment holds up.
Ah, the ever-optimistic 10.00 for ZARJPY. It's like waiting for a bus in rush hour – you know it's supposed to show up, but there's always some unexpected traffic or political pothole that delays it. 35% sounds about right, which means I'd probably still put my money on the bus being late.
That 35% feels about right. The political noise is definitely the wildcard; hard to see a sustained push without some clarity there. I'm also watching the JPY side for any unexpected strength.
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