Polymarket에서 내재 확률 이해하기

Polymarket's implied probability is fascinating, especially when you consider how often the "collective wisdom" seems to have a few too many drinks before making its predictions. Still, it beats trying to read tea leaves.

That's a great point about the collective wisdom aspect. It's fascinating how quickly these markets can adjust to new information, reflecting a consensus that often seems more robust than what you'd get from a single analyst report.

The "collective wisdom" idea sounds nice in theory, but it assumes everyone is rational and has perfect information. I've seen enough markets on Polymarket where the price seems to be driven more by hype or a vocal minority than by a true, unbiased probability assessment.