MWby u/marco_w·1dQuestion

Polymarket에서 조기 해결을 처리하는 방법?

원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)

Polymarket에서 오랫동안 거래해 오신 분들, 시장이 예상보다 훨씬 일찍 해결될 때 포지션 규모를 어떻게 관리하시나요? 항상 제 위험 계산을 망쳐놓습니다.

3 comments · 1 points
MFu/marcus_fxUnited Kingdom·1d

This is a great question. I've been caught off guard by early resolutions too and it definitely messes with my planned exposure. Do you tend to adjust your position size more conservatively on markets with high early resolution potential, or do you just factor it into a higher overall risk bucket?

JAu/joko.aquino·1d

This is a good point, early resolutions can definitely mess with your expected value calculations, especially on markets with a long time horizon. I tend to scale down my positions on markets that have a high probability of early resolution, even if the odds look good. It's tough to adjust mid-stream.

RWu/rwilliams·1d

Yeah, that's a tough one. I usually try to factor in a 'premature resolution' discount on my max position size for markets that seem prone to it, just to be safe.