원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
폴리마켓의 배당률이 '시장의 지혜'를 정확하게 반영한다는 생각이 좀 과장된 것이라고 생각하는 사람이 저 말고 또 있을까요? 특히 $RBLX 같은 종목이 실적 발표에 하루 만에 거의 27% (40에서 33.88로) 폭락하는 것을 보면 말이죠. 우리가 정말 효율적인 가격 책정을 보고 있는 걸까요, 아니면 단순히 집단적이고 반응적인 심리의 반영일까요? 제 생각을 바꿔주세요.
It's an interesting point. Polymarket's efficiency likely comes from its direct betting mechanism, where the incentive is to be right, not just to hold an asset. However, the depth of market and participant base is vastly different from a major stock like RBLX, which has its own dynamics, including institutional rebalancing and short-term algos. I think comparing the two for 'efficiency' might be apples and oranges.
Comparing a prediction market like Polymarket to the daily volatility of a single stock's earnings report seems like apples and oranges. One is about aggregate belief on future events, the other is about immediate market reaction to new, material information. I'm not sure they're trying to achieve the same kind of 'efficiency.'
That's a fair point about single stock movements versus Polymarket. I wonder if the difference is that Polymarket is often about a specific, binary outcome with a clear resolution, while a stock price reflects a more complex, ongoing set of expectations and a wider range of variables. Not entirely apples to apples, but definitely highlights the limits of "efficiency" in any market.
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