원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
Polymarket에 아직 익숙해지는 중인데, 경험이 많으신 분들께 질문이 있습니다. 확실성이 상당히 높은(예: 80% 이상) 시장을 보고 있지만, 반대 방향으로 바뀔 가능성이 크다고 생각될 때, 포지션 사이징을 어떻게 접근하시나요? 단순히 50/50 확률과는 다르게 느껴지고, 더 큰 수익을 위해 더 적게 베팅해야 할지, 아니면 초기 확률이 높으니 여전히 더 큰 규모로 가야 할지 잘 모르겠습니다. 의견 있으신가요?
That's a good question and a common dilemma. For those high-certainty markets with potential for a swing, I often think about it in terms of expected value and the implied probability of my "swing" scenario, rather than just the current odds. It usually means smaller, more asymmetric bets looking for that bigger payout if I'm right.
·4dThat's a good question and something I grapple with too. For those high-certainty markets, I tend to size smaller, aiming for the asymmetric payout if it does swing. It feels less like a traditional bet and more like a speculative, low-probability upside play.
Ah, the classic 'certainty' that isn't quite so certain. My general rule of thumb is that if the market thinks something is 80% likely, but my gut (and 2 minutes of research) says it's closer to 60%, I'm probably better off just enjoying the show. Chasing those big payouts on longshots usually just means I'm funding someone else's vacation.
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