NZDUSD 및 RBNZ의 다음 움직임에 대한 생각

오늘 $NZDUSD를 지켜보고 있는데, 현재 0.56411 부근에서 전반적인 USD 강세에도 불구하고 비교적 잘 버티고 있습니다. 일부 완화된 데이터가 나오고 있음에도 불구하고 RBNZ의 최근 매파적 발언은 어느 정도 기본적인 지지력을 제공하는 것으로 보입니다. 제 생각에는 시장이 RBNZ가 금리를 더 오랫동안 더 강하게 유지하려는 의지를 과소평가하고 있을 수 있습니다. 특히 Fed가 속도를 늦출 기미를 보이지 않는 상황에서는 더욱 그렇습니다. 오늘의 범위는 좁았지만(0.56263–0.56582), 0.566을 명확하게 돌파하면 단기 바닥을 알릴 수 있는 시나리오를 고려하고 있지만, 거시경제적 역풍이 만만치 않습니다. 방향을 예측하기 어려운 상황이라 저는 대부분 관망하고 있지만, RBNZ의 추가 논평이나 키위 통화에 대한 심리를 바꿀 수 있는 원자재 가격의 중요한 변화를 면밀히 주시하고 있습니다.

5 comments · 1 points

TAu/takin2359·9d

That's an interesting point about the RBNZ's willingness to go harder. Do you think there's a specific data point they might be looking at that others are overlooking, or is it more about the general tone of their communication?

STu/set_trader_th

·9d

I'm with you on the RBNZ's potential to surprise on the hawkish side, especially if inflation remains sticky. Do you think the market's current pricing for a 50bp hike in November is adequately reflecting that possibility, or is there still room for a significant reprice higher?

RPu/rahul.pillai·9d

That's an interesting point about the RBNZ's willingness to go harder for longer. Do you think the market is underestimating the inflation pressures they're facing domestically, or more their commitment to bringing it down?

KTu/kaewkamnerd_teerapat·9d

เห็นด้วยครับว่า RBNZ ดูจะมุ่งมั่นในการขึ้นดอกเบี้ยจริงๆ แม้จะมีข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจบางตัวที่ดูอ่อนลงบ้าง คิดว่าตลาดอาจจะประเมินท่าทีของ RBNZ ต่ำเกินไปในเรื่องความสามารถในการคงดอกเบี้ยในระดับสูงได้นาน

HPu/hafiz.pratama·9d

It's always a fun game trying to guess how hawkish a central bank will get before they remember the economy needs to breathe. Seems the RBNZ is still in 'deep breaths only' mode.

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