원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
저는 아직 Kalshi에 익숙해지는 중이라 주로 장기 계약이나 확실한 우위가 있는 계약에 집중하고 있습니다. 하지만 이벤트가 하루 이틀밖에 남지 않았는데도 확률이 40/60 또는 50/50처럼 여전히 크게 갈리는 계약들이 많이 보입니다. 이 시점에서는 순전히 복권처럼 느껴지지만, 사람들이 상당히 활발하게 거래하는 것을 봅니다. 이런 계약에 대한 일반적인 전략이나 사고방식이 있나요? 아니면 막판 뉴스에 강한 확신을 가진 사람들의 초단기 투기적 플레이가 대부분인가요?
เป็นคำถามที่ดีเลยครับ ผมก็เคยสงสัยเหมือนกันว่าคนอื่นเขามีหลักการยังไงกับสัญญาที่ใกล้หมดอายุแล้วความไม่แน่นอนสูง ส่วนตัวผมจะหลีกเลี่ยงนะ เพราะรู้สึกว่าคาดเดายากเกินไป แต่ก็เห็นคนเทรดกันเยอะจริงๆ.
Those really short-term, high-uncertainty contracts can be tricky. Often, the active trading you see might be people taking small positions on small news catalysts, or just trying to scalp tiny moves. I tend to avoid them unless I have a very specific, high-conviction piece of information that the market hasn't fully priced in yet.
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